Drought myth-busting: why El Niño is never a good bet
KQED (September 1, 2014) - If, like many Californians, you’ve been on El Niño Watch, you’re no-doubt confused by now. It’s happening. It’s not happening. But whether it is or isn’t might matter less than you think. “Don’t count on El Niño for anything,” Jay Lund, a UC Davis hydrologist, admonished us at a July drought briefing in Washington, D.C. At the time, forecasters were already downsizing earlier projections for a strong El Niño this fall (latest update shows that it might be regrouping for a comeback). But Lund was making a larger point: He and others have plotted El Niño against actual California precipitation and found … a pretty murky relationship, overall.